Center for Strategic Research (SAM) and Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) held a joint meeting and hosted Alvaro Vasconcelos who is an Associate Senior Researcher at Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) in Ankara on 28 January 2015. Mr. Vasconcelos first presented his report entitled “Scenarios for a Peace Mission for Syria” in which he analyzed scenarios for a possible peacekeeping mission in Syria, by providing recommendations to the United Nations (UN), and the European Union (EU).
The meeting moderated by Assoc. Prof. Şaban Kardaş, ORSAM President, with the participation of Ambassador Can Dizdar, Director General for Bilateral Political Affairs (Middle East and South Asia), Randa Slim, Director of the Track II Dialogues initiative at The Middle East Institute, Robert Stephen Ford, the United States Ambassador to Syria from 2010 to 2014, Ambassador Mohamed El Fatah NACIRI, Head of Mission of the League of Arab States to Ankara and representatives from relevant departments of the ministries, senior civil servants, diplomats.
The report provided three different possible scenarios for an end to the conflict; an international resolution to the conflict, which Alvaro Vasconcelos described as very unlikely, an externally driven settlement achieved via agreement among international powers and finally a regional solution. Among the three possible scenarios, Vasconcelos described regionally led solution is the most likely scenario, which would involve a regional solution including Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with the eventual backing of the U.S. and Russia.
Throughout the meeting, Turkey’s policy towards regional relationships with neighboring countries, especially Turkey’s current views on the Syrian crisis were evaluated. The participants shared their ideas and views about the aforementioned report and responded to various questions during the Q&A session at the end of the meeting.
Please find the report here.