Constellations of Mediation and Guarantor Roles in Conflict Resolution

Conflict response is complex and complicated, especially for protracted and intractable conflicts. Developing “constellations” of mediator and guarantor roles, rather than focusing solely on actors for such roles, can address several critical challenges that emerge because of the realpolitik of regional and international interests and power dynamics amongst the parties to the conflict and external intervening units. In its simplest terms, “constellation” here refers to developing interaction, communication, and networks for more effective cooperation and coordination among actors and their respective roles and responsibilities. For example, obtaining the consent of all conflicting parties as a mediator and guarantor requires understanding the state of historical and diplomatic relationships with the conflicting parties. 

Hence, a neutral stance regarding the matters of the conflict, especially with a mediation role, is paramount. Therefore, a particular actor essential for one conflicting party as a mediator and/or guarantor may be entirely unacceptable for another due to the current state of trust and bilateral relations. In such circumstances, the constellations approach can facilitate compromises, and such trust relations can change over time, allowing broader and deeper engagement of those third parties who might initially be vetoed by one of the parties.   

This distinction is critical, as although mediator and guarantor roles are often considered interchangeable, they are ultimately different. Mediation involves intervening by a neutral third party or parties to help conflicting parties reach a mutually acceptable agreement. Mediators can be individuals, organizations, or states trusted by all parties. At the same time, guarantors, being similar types of actors, provide assurances or guarantees to parties involved in a conflict regarding implementing and enforcing agreements. Neutrality is less of an issue, as a guarantor might need to be engaging to protect the interest of a particular party. 

This can be particularly imperative in asymmetrical conflicts. Guarantors may monitor ceasefire arrangements, deploy peacekeeping forces, or offer economic and development assistance to support post-conflict reconstruction efforts. The modality with the constellations of roles can incorporate inputs from several actors grouped as “mediators” and “guarantors”. Some actors can fulfill both roles and switch roles according to changes in the political landscape, allowing them to take up new roles and responsibilities. The constellations can be designed vertically and horizontally for several roles and responsibilities. Rather than deciding on roles according to actors, the roles should be the basis of finding appropriate actors. 

The two types of multiparty mediation approach – “simultaneous but independent” and “coalition efforts” can be a sound basis for planning such constellations. Within simultaneous mediation, multiple parties offer and are accepted to mediate the same conflict simultaneously, but do so independently. Meanwhile, within coalition efforts, a group of actors offer and are accepted in unison. In multiparty mediation, identifying whether they are operating simultaneously but independently or working as a coalition will not be possible unless the mediators explicitly group themselves as such. 

Therefore, coordinating simultaneous efforts needs to be incentivized to produce an agreement, for which the proposed constellations approach can help as it would lead to a more comprehensive and nuanced planning of the process. Such a modality of the constellations of mediator and guarantor roles will demand the coordinated involvement of multiple external actors to facilitate negotiations, support peace processes, and ensure the implementation of agreements. Several conflict resolution theories and frameworks can inform and support this approach, such as:

 • Multi-Track Diplomacy: Emphasizing the importance of engaging multiple actors across various tracks or channels to address different dimensions of a conflict simultaneously. 

• Complex Adaptive Systems Theory: Viewing conflicts as dynamic and interconnected systems involving multiple actors, interests, and feedback loops. This theory underscores the importance of adaptive approaches to conflict resolution that can respond to changing conditions and leverage the complexity of the conflict environment. 

• Conflict Transformation: Addressing a conflict's root causes and dynamics rather than simply managing or resolving immediate disputes. 

• Consensus-Building: Emphasizing the importance of reaching mutually acceptable agreements through dialogue, negotiation, and compromise. 

• Power and Interest-Based Negotiation: Emphasizing the role of power dynamics and underlying interests in shaping negotiation processes and outcomes. 

• Third-Party Intervention: Examining the role of external actors, such as mediators and guarantor states, in facilitating conflict resolution processes. Third-party intervention highlights the importance of impartiality, credibility, and facilitative techniques in helping conflicting parties overcome barriers to negotiation and reach sustainable agreements. 

• Peacebuilding and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Promoting reconciliation, rebuilding trust, and addressing the root causes of a conflict in the aftermath of violence. Ultimately, to initiate an effective constellations approach, the third parties concerned must convince the parties to the conflict that they are trustworthy mediators and/or guarantors. 

To do this, they need to take several diplomatic and strategic steps: maintaining open channels of communication and building constructive dialogue, respecting the parties’ security concerns, supporting confidence-building measures, adhering to international norms and agreements, engaging with regional partners, and offering concrete support for peace initiatives such as providing technical assistance, hosting negotiations, participating in peacekeeping efforts, or supporting reconstruction. Third parties such as the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or other international or regional organizations can be in an excellent place to coordinate within the constellations approach. However, even the coordination role can be designed from a constellation perspective, aiming to engage other actors, such as civil society organizations and academic institutions with conflict resolution expertise, like the Carter School. In short, it is time to revisit how we design and implement conflict resolution in complex environments of intractable conflicts and apply innovation and creativity. Let’s not forget that one of the reasons these protracted conflicts have remained unresolved is that previous conflict resolution attempts have failed.