SAM Papers The Future of the Libyan Quagmire: Challenges and Prospects

Ever since the February 17 Revolution in 2011, Libya has gone through various phases of turmoil, instability, power struggle and meddling by international actors. The political and security landscape in the country has been heating up since 2020, as the political process proceeds. However, Libya remains fragile due to the many potential challenges and risks, while external players demand sustainable solutions and a clear pathway for the future. By focusing on the structural and conjectural determinants of the Libyan question, this paper seeks to explain the local, regional and international dynamics to make sense of the future of the Libyan question. In the first section, the paper analyzes local/national, regional and international dynamics by taking into consideration the current political situation as well as the changing dynamics of the political landscape in the post-Berlin period. In the second section, the study explains the question of how local, regional and international dynamics impact the very nature of Libya’s political, security and geopolitical challenges, particularly those that have been taking place in the post-Berlin period. In the final section, the study explores the ways in which these different types of challenges may shape the Libyan question in the near future.